A good guess, built step by step.

Lesson 6 of 6About 8 minutes5 steps

Interviewers ask “how many UPI payments does a restaurant take on a Saturday?” not for the number but for how you reach it. Break it down, say your assumptions, check it two ways, and show what moves the answer.

  • Break a big number into small ones
  • State assumptions out loud
  • Sanity-check, and show what the answer depends on

You need: Nothing but curiosity.

  1. 1Statistics you use every day
  2. 2SQL that answers questions
  3. 3Charts that answer the question
  4. 4Power BI’s filter context
  5. 5A/B tests
  6. 6Guesstimates
0 of 5 steps
  1. Clarify first

    Predict first

    “Estimate the UPI payments one restaurant takes in a day.” What do you ask first?

    Just show me

    Scope: say, a 50-seat family restaurant on a Saturday, counting bills paid by UPI. A minute of questions saves a wrong answer.

    Restate the question, agree the scope and the units, and say how you’ll break it down. Interviewers often give details if you ask; if they don’t, choose them and say so.

    Quick check

    Why say your assumptions out loud?

    They’re grading the reasoning, and hidden assumptions earn no credit.

  2. Break it into pieces you can guess

    Predict first

    Which breakdown works for bills in a day?

    Just show me

    Seats, how often each fills, how many sittings, and how many people share a bill.

    Choose a structure where each piece is easy to guess and easy to defend; the share paid by UPI then gives the answer. Every number in the calculator is an assumption, not a fact: change them.

    Seats

    Sittings a day

    Times each seat fills a sitting

    People to a bill

    Bills paid by UPI

    Average bill

    38UPI payments on a Saturday, by these assumptions

    50 seats × 2 sittings × 1.5 = 150 diners ÷ 3 = 50 bills × 75% = 38 by UPI · takings about ₹60,000

    Moves it most: seats (from 23 to 60 payments)

    Quick check

    What makes a good breakdown?

    A few defensible pieces beat many shaky ones.

  3. Sanity-check

    Predict first

    Your answer implies the restaurant takes ₹40 lakh a day. What now?

    Just show me

    Check it: a 50-seat restaurant doesn’t take ₹40 lakh a day, so one assumption, often the average bill, is off.

    Compare the answer with something you know: takings per seat, footfall in a mall, your own experience. Here the defaults give 50 bills and about ₹60,000 on a Saturday, which sounds like a busy family restaurant. If a check fails, say which assumption you’re changing and why; interviewers value that more than a lucky first number.

    Quick check

    Your estimate is 10 times a figure you know. Best response?

    The error usually hides in one step: find it.

  4. A second road to the number

    Predict first

    You built it bottom-up, from seats. What’s the best second check?

    Just show me

    Top-down: a restaurant taking about ₹60,000 on a Saturday, at ₹1,200 a bill, has about 50 bills; 75% by UPI is about 38.

    Two roads that agree within a factor of two make an estimate believable; two that disagree point to the weak assumption. Top-down starts from a big known number (a city’s population, a market’s size) and narrows; bottom-up builds from one unit (a seat, a shop, a customer) and scales up.

    Quick check

    Bottom-up says 40, top-down says 400. What does that tell you?

    A tenfold gap means a wrong piece somewhere; averaging hides it.

  5. Show what moves the answer

    Predict first

    Which assumption should you name at the end?

    Just show me

    The one that’s both uncertain and strong: change each in the calculator and watch the answer.

    Here seats and sittings move it most (from about 23 to 60, and 19 to 56), but you can count the seats and ask the hours. How often each seat fills is both uncertain and strong (25 to 50), so end with it: “About 38 a day, between 25 and 50 depending on how busy the sittings are.” A range with its reason beats a single number.

    Quick check

    How should you end a guesstimate?

    It shows judgement, not just arithmetic.

In the interview: guesstimates.

Ask Prism about this lesson

Sources

  1. Weinstein and Adam, “Guesstimation: Solving the World’s Problems on the Back of a Cocktail Napkin”, Princeton University Press, 2008.
  2. Our case study and guesstimate questions, with model answers.

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